Press Box View: Playing for keeps

December 18, 2007

A keeper league can be kind of like a marriage for a Fantasy owner. You have to deal with a player in sickness and in health, there are good times and bad and in some cases you feel tied to them forever with little reward. Deciding on quarterbacks to keep can be tricky. Draft a good one at the start of your league, like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, and you are set for the span of his career. There will likely be plenty of Fantasy playoff appearances and a few championships.

But draft a bad quarterback with the hope of him being your future — Matt Leinart and Alex Smith are falling into that category — and you could be behind the rest of your league.

As we examine keeper leagues over the next three weeks, there are obviously different rules for different leagues. Some require a loss of a draft pick for the round that player was taken in, others have no requirements at all.

The evaluations here are based on how we think these quarterbacks will fare next season, so apply your own league guidelines to each category.

The quarterbacks who have improved their keeper value this year are Tony Romo, Derek Anderson and Ben Roethlisberger, while Marc Bulger and Donovan McNabb have dropped.

There will likely be changes to this list as the season finishes out and depending on what happens in the offseason, but use this as an early guide to setting up your keepers.

The players listed below are in alphabetical order in their respective categories. The 2008 ranking is based on where we think this player will rank at his position. For example, Tom Brady will likely be ranked as either the first or second quarterback next season.
Obvious choices

Tom Brady, New England
Pro: He’s going to set the single-season record for touchdowns this season and will have plenty of talent next year as long as Randy Moss returns as a free agent.
Con: If Moss leaves, Brady will still be good, but his value will take a hit. Brady is still a No. 1 Fantasy QB without Moss, but he’s not the best in the game anymore if he’s only throwing to Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney. And he’s not going to duplicate this year’s stats.
2008 ranking: 1-2

Drew Brees, New Orleans
Pro: After a slow start, Brees got back on track and should finish this season with about 30 touchdowns. And Marques Colston will only get better next season, as should his complementary receivers.
Con: Hopefully a No. 2 receiver develops for the Saints. And you have to worry about the return of Deuce McAllister potentially making the offense stagnant like it was earlier this year before McAllister got hurt.
2008 ranking: 3-5

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Pro: Even in a “down year,” Manning will still pass for 30 touchdowns and has developed other options this year besides just Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez.
Con: Harrison has missed most of this season and will likely continue to decline next year, and Clark is a free agent. If Manning is without both of those receiving threats, his value will take a hit, albeit a slight one.
2008 ranking: 1-3

Tony Romo, Dallas
Pro: In Romo’s first full year as a starter he has a chance to throw for more than 40 touchdowns and will have solid options next year in Terrell Owens and Jason Witten.
Con: Jason Garrett, the Cowboys offensive coordinator, could leave for a head coaching job elsewhere since he will be a hot commodity, and Patrick Crayton could leave as a free agent. Owens also has been happy and injury free this season, which has been a benefit.
2008 ranking: 2-4
Lock ‘em up

Derek Anderson, Cleveland
Pro: He has emerged as a legitimate No. 1 Fantasy starter behind a great offensive line with stud receivers in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. If the offense remains the same, Anderson should continue to thrive. He will pass for more than 30 touchdowns this year.
Con: Brady Quinn is waiting in the wings, so it’s unknown what the Browns will do. And Anderson is a restricted free agent, so if he does end up with another team, his value could change.
2008 ranking: 6-10

Jay Cutler, Denver
Pro: Cutler has emerged as the best quarterback from the 2006 class with Vince Young and Matt Leinart and has solid weapons with Brandon Marshall, Javon Walker, Brandon Stokley and Tony Scheffler.
Con: He’s still unproven, and with the way Denver has performed this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise if a coaching change is made. The Broncos also are a run-oriented team, which tends to hurt Cutler at times.
2008 ranking: 7-11

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
Pro: He’s on pace to set a new career-high in touchdowns, and the offensive philosophy in Seattle is changing from being run-oriented to pass happy. He also has developed a nice receiving corps with Deion Branch, D.J. Hackett, Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson.
Con: Hackett is a free agent, and Engram will be 35 next year. And if Shaun Alexander comes back at 100 percent, the plodding offense for the Seahawks could return.
2008 ranking: 5-9

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
Pro: Even in a down year, he’s a great passer and should have plenty of talented weapons in Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry. It’s not like Palmer is going to stop throwing.
Con: There is a chance the Bengals will have a new coach and a potential philosophy change. And Johnson could be shipped out based on the rumors circulated this year. Palmer also will set a career-high in interceptions this year.
2008 ranking: 3-5

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Pro: Big Ben shattered his career-high for touchdowns this year and is on pace for 30 touchdowns. He has solid weapons in Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller, and the Steelers have given him more freedom in the offense.
Con: Is this a one-hit wonder, or can Roethlisberger keep this up? He never had more than 19 touchdown passes in a season, so expectations could be high for Big Ben next year to duplicate this success. And after a hot start this year, he tailed off, so Fantasy owners will be wary.
2008 ranking: 7-11
Worth a look

Marc Bulger, St. Louis
Pro: He still plays in a tremendous offense with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett and Steven Jackson. Prior to this year, Bulger had averaged 20 touchdowns over the past three seasons.
Con: Bulger has only played one full season in his past three, the Rams have problems along the offensive line and Holt (32) and Bruce (35) will be one-year older next year. And Jackson will be expected to play a larger role in the offense.
2008 ranking: 6-10

Brett Favre, Green Bay
Pro: Favre was rejuvenated this season and has a chance to pass for 30 touchdowns. He has solid weapons in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Donald Lee, and all the retirement talk appears to be a thing of the past.
Con: Favre will be 39 during the season next year. How long can he keep this up?
2008 ranking: 7-11

David Garrard, Jacksonville
Pro: Has emerged as a quality Fantasy option with his recent play and has been efficient all season long with only one interception. Would have finished with over 20 touchdowns had he not missed three games with an ankle injury.
Con: He plays in a run-oriented offense, has no credible wide receivers to speak of and is unproven.
2008 ranking: 12-15

Eli Manning, New York Giants
Pro: Will have his third-consecutive season with over 20 touchdown passes, has solid weapons in Brandon Jacobs, Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey and is capable of big games on a weekly basis.
Con: Is capable of throwing 20-plus interceptions and is very inconsistent. Manning also had a bad stretch this year when Burress was limited with an ankle injury, and Shockey has been awful at times this year. And the Giants need to find a complementary wide receiver since Amani Toomer will be 34 next year.
2008 ranking: 11-14

Philip Rivers, San Diego
Pro: Has shown at times to be a great quarterback and should finish the season with over 20 touchdowns and 3,000 yards passing. Rivers plays in a great offense with Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers and LaDainian Tomlinson.
Con: He might also get 20 interceptions this year and has regressed from last season. This is still Tomlinson’s offense, but Rivers is worth a look in deep keeper formats.
2008 ranking: 13-17

Matt Schaub, Houston
Pro: Showed flashes of greatness when he played with Andre Johnson and should be amazing if the two are healthy for a full season. The offense should continue to improve next year, and Owen Daniels has emerged as a quality tight end.
Con: Schaub’s season might be over due to injury, leaving him with only 11 games as a starter and a fragile label. And the emergence of Sage Rosenfels could be troublesome.
2008 ranking: 13-16

Vince Young, Tennessee
Pro: Has the potential to score 25 total touchdowns because of his ability to run and pass and showed signs this year of improving as a passer.
Con: Regressed this year and is on pace to throw for 20 interceptions. His receiving corps is terrible, and the Titans are still a run-oriented team.
2008 ranking: 11-14
Let ‘em go

Kyle Boller, Baltimore
Pro: Is expected to enter next season as the starter and should get improved play from Mark Clayton and from Todd Heap being healthy. Still has a great running back in Willis McGahee.
Con: Showed nothing so far in his brief career, and there’s no guarantee he will start next year with Steve McNair’s status unknown.
2008 ranking: 25-28

Jason Campbell, Washington
Pro: Campbell showed during a stretch in November that he can be a starting Fantasy option, and Santana Moss should bounce back next year. He has a great tight end in Chris Cooley and a strong running game.
Con: He’s unproven and may be nothing more than a backup Fantasy quarterback. Moss is on the decline, and there is no quality No. 2 wide receiver.
2008 ranking: 14-17

Kellen Clemens, New York Jets
Pro: Will enter next season as the starter and still has quality wide receivers in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. He should improve next year as a full-time starter.
Con: Chad Pennington isn’t gone yet, and Clemens hasn’t had much success in his starts this season. He needs to finish the season strong to prove he’s capable of being a legitimate Fantasy option.
2008 ranking: 20-24

Brodie Croyle, Kansas City
Pro: Has a strong arm and plays with a developing wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe and a great tight end in Tony Gonzalez. The offensive line woes should be addressed this offseason.
Con: Has shown very little in his starts this season and was replaced by Damon Huard at times. Larry Johnson remains the focal point of the offense, and Gonzalez will be 32 next year.
2008 ranking: 21-25

Jake Delhomme, Carolina
Pro: Was playing great until getting hurt and has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Steve Smith. When healthy, he’s a candidate for 25-plus touchdowns every year.
Con: He finished the season on injured reserve with an elbow injury and hasn’t played a full season in two years. There are expected to be changes in Carolina next season with a new coach, which could impact Delhomme’s value.
2008 ranking: 13-16

Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay
Pro: Has showed flashes of being a solid Fantasy option this year and was playing well before getting hurt.
Con: He’ll be 38 next year and is more of a backup Fantasy quarterback at this point. He’s also injury prone, and No. 1 wide receiver Joey Galloway also is 36. And there is no quality No. 2 wide receiver on the team.
2008 ranking: 22-25

Rex Grossman, Chicago
Pro: When he’s on, he’s great, which is what happened at times in 2006 when he passed for 23 touchdowns. If he stays in Chicago, he will continue his rapport with Bernard Berrian and has an emerging tight end in Greg Olsen. If he goes elsewhere as a free agent, his value could increase.
Con: Grossman has been awful at times and was benched this year in favor of Brian Griese. If Grossman does return to Chicago, he could lose Berrian, who is a free agent.
2008 ranking: 23-26

Jon Kitna, Detroit
Pro: Playing for offensive coordinator Mike Martz and with quality weapons in Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey, Kitna has the chance to pass for 4,000 yards and 25-plus touchdowns.
Con: The Lions have a terrible offensive line, and Kitna gets sacked too much. He also throws too many interceptions and will be 36 next year. He’s someone you can let go and draft later if you desire.
2008 ranking: 14-17

Matt Leinart, Arizona
Pro: He’s expected to be the starter next year for the Cardinals and plays in a great offense with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
Con: He regressed this season and was benched in favor of Kurt Warner before getting hurt. Warner will still be around next year, which could hurt Leinart’s development, and Boldin and Fitzgerald are injury prone.
2008 ranking: 15-18

J.P. Losman, Buffalo
Pro: He had 3,051 yards passing and 19 touchdowns in 2006 and plays with a solid wide receiver in Lee Evans. Before losing his job to Trent Edwards this year, Losman showed flashes of his potential.
Con: Edwards is clearly the future in Buffalo, and Losman will likely enter next season as the backup unless he’s playing for another team.
2008 ranking: 23-29

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
Pro: He can still be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy and has averaged 21 passing touchdowns the previous three seasons. He should improve next season now that his knee is close to 100 percent.
Con: Who knows where McNabb will play next season. He also hasn’t played a full season in the past three years, and his receiving corps is terrible. It’s time to let McNabb go in keeper formats.
2008 ranking: 11-14

Steve McNair, Baltimore
Pro: Will still compete for the starting job if healthy, and had 3,000 yards passing and 18 touchdowns in 2006. He also should get improved play from Mark Clayton and from Todd Heap being healthy.
Con: He will be 35 next year, and his best days are behind him. Kyle Boller should be the starter for the Ravens next season.
2008 ranking: 27-30

Chad Pennington, New York Jets
Pro: He might have a chance to compete for the starting job in New York or somewhere else if he doesn’t return. If he stays with the Jets, he has a good rapport with Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery and passed for 3,352 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2006.
Con: Kellen Clemens is the future for the Jets, and Pennington might not start in the NFL again.
2008 ranking: 26-29

Alex Smith, San Francisco
Pro: Showed promise in 2006 when he passed for 16 touchdowns and has a promising offense with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Arnaz Battle. Should return from a shoulder injury next year and improve on this season.
Con: Regressed this year before getting hurt and also has a rift brewing with coach Mike Nolan. Davis also struggled this year, and the acquisition of wide receiver Darrell Jackson didn’t work out. Smith has a long way to go as a quarterback.
2007 ranking: 18-21

Kurt Warner, Arizona
Pro: When Matt Leinart got hurt, Warner took off and currently has a stretch of five games with at least two touchdown passes. If he starts next year ahead of Leinart, Warner should excel with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
Con: Leinart should return as the starter, which will put Warner back on the bench. He’s also 37 next year and on the downside of his career.
2008 ranking: 19-26
Dynasty options

Trent Edwards, Buffalo
Pro: Edwards is 5-1 as a starter in first six starts and has earned the job heading into next year. He has solid weapons in Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch and should continue to improve.
Con: Edwards needs to develop a better rapport with Evans and prove he can win games with his arm as opposed to just being a caretaker of the offense. But the future is bright for this rookie, who would benefit with another good wide receiver opposite Evans.
2008 ranking: 16-20

John Beck, Miami
Pro: With Trent Green’s career likely over, Beck will enter next season as the starter. He should get Ronnie Brown back for the start of the season, and the Dolphins will have another high draft pick to potentially use on offense.
Con: Beck was terrible in his first four starts, and the Dolphins have few weapons on offense with young receiving options in Ted Ginn Jr. and Derek Hagan. He has a long way to go before he can help your Fantasy team.
2008 ranking: 23-30

Brady Quinn, Cleveland
Pro: Since he was a first-round pick, he will eventually get his chance with the Browns. Derek Anderson could leave as a restricted free agent, and the Browns have great weapons in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.
Con: He hasn’t played a down this year, and Anderson will likely be in Cleveland in 2008. Quinn is expected to spend one more season on the bench.
2008 ranking: 27-30

JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Pro: The Raiders are starting to give Russell playing time, and he will enter 2008 as the starter. The Raiders eventually will start to improve and have some potential future options in Justin Fargas, who is a free agent, Michael Bush and Zach Miller.
Con: He hasn’t played enough to know if he can be a legitimate Fantasy option. He should be considered a backup Fantasy quarterback in 2008.
2008 ranking: 19-22

Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia
Pro: With Donovan McNabb potentially on the way out for the Eagles, Kolb could be the starter next year.
Con: It is unknown if McNabb will leave and Kolb hasn’t played at all this year, even when McNabb was hurt. More than likely, Kolb will not be the starter for the Eagles next season.
2008 ranking: 28-30

Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota
Pro: Jackson is starting to show flashes of being a potential quality quarterback with his recent play. He has a great running game with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, a tremendous offensive line and Sidney Rice could a nice wide receiver down the road.
Con: This is a run-oriented offense, and Jackson’s job is to not make mistakes instead of making plays. If he continues to improve, he could have more Fantasy value, but he will likely remain a Fantasy backup next year.
2008 ranking: 24-27

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Pro: Brett Favre is 39, so the job will eventually go to Rodgers. When Favre was hurt against Dallas, Rodgers showed he’s capable of making plays and will have great weapons eventually, led by Greg Jennings.
Con: Favre is expected to return in 2008, so it could be a while before Rodgers ever helps your Fantasy team. But remain patient because he could be a future star.
2008 ranking: 29-30

Written by sbucciarel Filed Under Fantasy Football 

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