Sox’s future takes another hit

January 4, 2008

Swisher deal improves club for now, but not enough to justify its cost

Is Jerry Reinsdorf selling the White Sox after 2008? Is Ken Williams planning to do his job only one more year and then move on? Or do those two guys peer into their crystal balls and see enough pitching lined up behind Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez and Bobby Jenks to put the Sox in the same league as the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians?

The answer to the last of those questions must be yes. Otherwise you really have to wonder what has happened to the once-responsible managers of the 2005 World Series champions. And I don’t see how you can put the Sox into the same conversation with the Tigers and Indians, the two powerhouses from the American League Central.

Nothing against Nick Swisher, but on first examination I really don’t like the deal that brought the dangerous 27-year-old switch-hitter to Chicago for three promising youngsters. I hate it, actually.

The players going to Oakland in the Swisher trade are Gio Gonzalez, 22, and Fautino de los Santos, 21, the two most highly regarded pitchers in a thin farm system, and outfielder Ryan Sweeney, 22, who entered 2007 rated the organization’s top prospect by Baseball America.

That same publication was about to go to press with its 2008 rankings, which would have had Gonzalez No. 1, de los Santos No. 2 and Sweeney No. 6. That’s a ton of talent to give up for one proven hitter, even if he is signed through 2011 at a reasonable salary.

But that has been Williams’ modus operandus as general manager, especially since 2005—using prospects to acquire veterans in the hope of getting another bite at the apple. That strategy blew up in his face when he sent center fielder Chris Young to Arizona for Vazquez, and this trade could make that one pale in its long-term cost.

It’s the kind of trade you make only if you have A) a deep farm system and B) a reasonably good chance to reach the playoffs in the near future.

The White Sox have neither.

A year ago, with the same nucleus of Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome, the Sox scored 693 runs, which ranked last in the AL. They allowed 839, more than all but three other teams. They finished 24 games behind Cleveland and 16 behind Detroit.

It defies logic to believe they somehow will improve enough to make up those differences, especially with the Tigers adding Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and Dontrelle Willis. And Minnesota may yet concede, but with Johan Santana and Joe Nathan still on the roster, the Twins cannot be overlooked either.

Williams made longtime scouting director Duane Shaffer a scapegoat for the farm system’s failings in recent years, firing him midway through 2007. But the work of Shaffer and his scouts had a whole lot to do with that ‘05 championship, and Williams’ willingness to deal prospects contributed to down years for the system in ‘06 and ‘07.

A month ago, Williams traded Class A first baseman Chris Carter to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin. Carter had been regarded as the organization’s top young hitter before he was dealt away. That distinction previously had gone to outfielder Aaron Cunningham, whom Williams traded to Arizona for second baseman Danny Richar midway through last season.

Perhaps Richar and Quentin will prove to be worth the gambles. But after their early tastes of the big leagues (138 games for Quentin and 56 for Richar), they are both .230 hitters.

With Gonzalez, de los Santos, Sweeney, Carter and Cunningham gone, the Sox may not have anyone who will rank among the game’s top 50 prospects when those lists are compiled. If they do, it will be Cuban Alexei Ramirez, whose signing—which was a great move—might not become official until mid-January because he’s having trouble entering the country for a physical.

Gonzalez, who has now been in three White Sox trades, and de los Santos are both potential No. 2 starters, if not aces. I’ve been intrigued with Gonzalez since watching him work for Philadelphia in the spring of 2006, and I loved what I saw from de los Santos in the Futures Game in July.

Gonzalez led all minor-leaguers with 185 strikeouts in 150 innings a year ago, repeating Double A, and de los Santos held Class A hitters to a .163 average while striking out 11.3 per nine innings. They’re both the type of young pitcher you just don’t give up—not unless you’re getting a stud pitcher such as Santana or Dan Haren back.

It has been almost four years since Sweeney elicited Harold Baines comparisons from Roland Hemond in spring training. But with a change of scenery, and perhaps a break from over-coaching by an undistinguished group of minor-league hitting instructors, he could blossom into a hitter like the popular Swisher, who averaged 26 homers and 82 RBIs in his three full seasons in Oakland.

Along with shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for Jon Garland, Swisher is a significant upgrade for the 2008 starting lineup. The Sox won’t finish last in the league with those guys replacing Juan Uribe and Scott Podsednik/Darin Erstad.

Unless Williams has found a way to deal Konerko—and I wouldn’t unhinge this team further by dealing Konerko, still the most stable lineup part—he will play Swisher in center or left (with some platoon involving Jerry Owens and Quentin filling the other position). The versatile Ramirez becomes something of a super utility man in 2008 before settling into center, short or second in ‘09, depending on Cabrera re-signing and the play of Owens and Richar.

Swisher easily could hit 30-plus homers based in Chicago, benefiting from a move to U.S. Cellular Field the way A.J. Pierzynski did in 2005. His high on-base percentage (.381 in ‘07, .361 career) gives Ozzie Guillen the potential to stack his lineup with Cabrera and Swisher as the 1-2 guys to take pressure off the speedy Owens and Richar.

Swisher makes the Sox better, no doubt about that. But Williams paid too high a price to get him. The next five years will show how much too high it was.

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